February 24 marks one year of the Russia-Ukraine war. In this context, Al-Jazeera spoke to Russian defense analyst Pavel Felgenhauer about the ongoing war. He spoke of the present state of war as well as the prospect of peace. According to him, this war may end this year.
Pavel worked as a senior research officer at the Soviet Academy of Sciences. His works include Russian foreign and defense policy, military ideology, arms trade and military industry. He has written a lot on these subjectPavel believes that the intensity of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war may increase now. In this context, he said, everything cannot be predicted correctly. But he believes, now the increase in the intensity of this war is imminent. Everyone is now talking about the Russian offensive intensifying. In this context, the military commanders of Western countries recently spoke in Brussels about how the Ukrainian forces should advance, how they should be aggressive. General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke about fears of a fall in Kiev a year ago. He is now saying that Russia has lost this war strategically and technically.
This Russian defense analyst believes that Ukraine is getting ready to do something. According to him, Russia is currently in a serious financial crisis. The country is also in trouble on the war front. But no one knows what exactly is going to happen on the battlefield. But he feels that this war may end this yeaPavel shares the same opinion as most experts on the question of which side will ultimately win the war. He mentioned that the matter cannot be confirmed now. He said, he does not know who will win the war. Because war is like a football game. Every time many people think that this time Brazil will win the cup. But Brazil doesn't win every time.
Pavel said, now one thing is being pronounced. And that, as it was thought, Russia is not really as strong as it has already been seen on the battlefield. And Russia is not so weak. So Russia cannot be completely dismissed.
Why did Russian President Vladimir Putin go to war? To such a question, Pavel said, there is a military reason here. He went to war to prevent the deployment of Western missiles in Ukraine aimed at Moscow.
Pavel believes there is also a geopolitical reason for Putin's going to war. According to him, Putin went to war with the goal of reuniting Russians by promoting the idea that Ukrainians are actually Russian people. At the same time, he wants to weaken the Western unity. Wanted to create a conflict within the Western alliance. Wanted to build a new multi-polar world system.
According to Pavel, Putin thought that Russian forces were so strong that they were going to win the Ukraine war very quickly. This war will bring various political, economic and geopolitical advantages for Moscow. But the reality is, the Russian military is not as strong as the West thought. Russian forces are not ready for modern wPavel believes that Ukraine's organizational preparation for war was relatively good. In this context, he said, Ukraine's military command and control is good. Apart from that they also got advanced weaponry from the West.
For more than 100 years, Pavel commented that the Russian military had been isolated from the global trends in warfare. He said the Russian military still lives in a world of tank-based warfare. They think that if you have a lot of tanks, you will easily win the war.
Pavel said that Russia was not prepared intellectually, mentally and physically for this conflict. Even the Russian military themselves rejected the idea of Russia going to war. They said that Russia will face massive resistance from Ukraine in the war. Ukraine has a large army. And there will be Western support for Ukraine. But the Russian leadership that decided to go to war was apparently living in a dream world.arfare.r.s.
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